Below is my MLB playoffs preview with my predictions.
AL Wild Card (Yankees vs Red Sox):
Yankees: It took the Yankees 162 games for them to clinch a spot in the 2021 MLB playoffs and it was an absolute roller coaster of a ride. With the trade deadline additions of Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, Clay Holmes, Joely Rodriguez and Andrew Heaney, the Yankees went on a scorching hot streak. The Yankees went 23-4 following the Trade Deadline. Then, they went 3-12 right after their very productive streak. The Yankees starting rotation was excellent all year with their 3.98 SIERA and 91 ERA-. The Yankees main two sluggers, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, answered the bell this year with a 148 wRC+ and 137 wRC+ respectively.
Two X-Factors: One hitter who can decide how far the Yankees can go is Gleyber Torres. With the late, unfortunate injury to DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres was moved up in the lineup all the way to the leadoff spot. Torres' defensive struggles at short made news all year long (-11 Defensive Runs Saved), and his bat was below average. After another terrible performance at shortstop, Aaron Boone made the decision to move Torres to second base on September 13th. Since then, in his 19 games at second base he has posted a .300/.372/.443 slash line with a 124 wRC+. He seems comfortable at second, and his launch angle increased to 14.8 with a 30.8% HardHit% turning him to a potential threat at the plate again. It will be critical for Torres to get on base for Rizzo, Judge and Stanton and continue to lift and drive the ball in big situations. One pitcher who is being overlooked is Luis Severino. Severino hadn’t pitched since game 3 of the 2019 ALCS due to multiple injuries and setbacks, but he is finally back. He isn’t back in the rotation, but he is coming out of the bullpen with the flexibility to throw multiple innings. Since his return, Severino has a 31.8% K-BB% and a 2.97 xFIP. Granted, he has only thrown 6 innings, but it would be foolish to believe that one of the game's best pitchers wouldn’t be able to pitch some lockdown innings.
Red Sox: Before the season, Fangraphs predicted that the Red Sox would miss the playoffs. Alex Cora returned to manage the club after his suspension for his involvement with the Astros sign stealing scandal and Chaim Bloom was in his second year as the Red Sox Executive. Bloom immediately hit the jackpot with several additions that nobody even thought of. After being non-tendered by the Tampa Bay Rays, Renfroe signed with the Red Sox and delivered. Renfroe had a 114 wRC+, .816 OPS while being one of the best defensive outfielders as well. Next, the Red Sox drafted Garret Whitlock from the Yankees in the rule 5 draft. In 46 games, Whitlock has a 2.84 FIP, 49.7 GB%, and a 3.06 SIERA. Combine those two finds with the already dangerous lineup and sneaky good rotation and you will find success. Bloom pulled the trigger on deals for Kyle Schwarber, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles and later acquired Travis Shaw and Jose Iglesias who all found ways to contribute to the Red Sox 92-70 season.
Two X-Factors: During the trade deadline week, the Red Sox were heavily rumored to acquire Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, for the BoSOX, their rival, New York Yankees, managed to pull off a deal for the lefty-hitting first baseman. Luckily for the Sox, it turns out the best deal was the deal that was never made. Since August 1st, Bobby Dalbec posted a slash line of .288/.369/.683 and an extremely productive 174 wRC+. In fact, that 174 wRC+ was the eight highest in all of baseball since that date trailing the names of Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Paul Goldschmidt. Dalbec is more inclined to start against left handed starters, but if he continues to mash in the playoffs, that is a bat that can put the Red Sox in another stratosphere. Red Sox 25 year old, Tanner Houck has both started and came out of the bullpen for Boston this season (18 games, 13 starts), and has been dominant.For his 2021 season, he had a 3.22 xERA and a 11.35 K/9 with his best pitch being the slider with his -4 Run Value. For the postseason, Boston will definitely have Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale as their starters and most likely Eduardo Rodriquez, but with a potential open spot in the rotation, Houck might fill in that role. Also, they have had serious bullpen struggles in the second half headlined by former closer, Matt Barnes (5.92 FIP, 131 ERA-), so there is a chance that Houck could close out some games as well.
Prediction: The probable starters for the wild card game are Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. The season series was won by the Red Sox (10-9) which is why it is being played at Fenway rather than Yankee Stadium. This is an extremely tough call, but I will give the edge to the Yankees due to the Yankees having the better starter taking the mound.
ALDS (Yankees vs Rays):
Rays: The Tampa Bays followed up their 2020 World Series appearance with a fantastic 2021 season that headlined the debut of Wander Franco. The Rays lost Blake Snell, Charlie Morton in the offseason, then lost Yonny Chirinos and Tyler Glasnow who was probably the AL CY favorite at the time. The Rays entire pitching staff picked up the slack though with a 3.97 xFIP which ranked them 5th in all of baseball. Some of the pitchers who helped along the way were fellow rookie Shane McClanahan, Collin McHugh and Andrew Kittredge. They ended up trading shortstop, Willy Adames, to the Milwaukee Brewers for J.P Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen thus opening the door for top prospect in all of baseball, Wander Franco. It took some time for Franco to solidify himself, however he burst on to the scene when he exploded for a 43 game on base streak. During his 43 game on base streak, Franco had a slash line of .329/.398/.545 with a 163 wRC+. What might be the most impressive thing about Franco was his 33.8% O-Swing% during his streak showing his discipline as a rookie. In the 70 games he played he had 3.5 bWAR which already puts him in the conversation as a top-25 player in baseball at the age of 20.
Two X-Factors: Ji-Man Choi made his season debut on May 16th and continued to show his amazing discipline at the plate with his 14.8% BB%. Choi has actually struggled since August 1st with his 84 wRC+, however the Rays continue to show their trust in Choi by putting him in the lineup and they have put him in all 9 positions in the batting order. If the Yankees were to advance and play the Rays in the ALDS, Choi would have phenomenal numbers against Gerrit Cole. Choi is 8 for 14 with 3 walks and 3 home runs so that should definitely be monitored if the two teams meet up. One pitcher who is going to be used in every situation possible is Colin McHugh. McHugh signed with the Rays during the offseason after not being able to pitch for the Red Sox in 2020. McHugh has been a swiss army knife for Tampa appearing in 37 games while starting in 7 of them. McHugh had a 38 ERA- and a 2.12 FIP and has been excellent in high leverage situations with a .240 batting average and a .621 OPS against. I would expect McHugh to be counted on in many different situations in this series.
Prediction: This is the hardest series for me to predict because the Yankees have the talent on paper, but not the possibility of losing Gerrit Cole for a start because he had to start the wild card game might become costly. A stacked bullpen and a lineup that features Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton might keep it close, but I’m going with the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees in 5 games.
ALDS (White Sox vs Astros):
White Sox: The Chicago White Sox rebuild has been completed. Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are in the majors and are producing at a high level. Meanwhile, the rotation has been solid all year long with Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease leading the way. Many predicted (I included) that the Minnesota Twins would be the AL Central division champs, but the Twins struggled the entire year, and the slow start hindered their chances at giving the White Sox some sort of shot at the division. Even though the White Sox had a comfortable divisional lead, Rick Hahn made a huge deal in acquiring both Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs just shortly after acquiring Ryan Tepera at an earlier date. He also acquired Cesar Hernandez from the Cleveland Indians. The bullpen for Chicago has been outstanding and got better as the season went on. The bullpen features Liam Hendricks, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Bummer, Michael Kopech and Garret Crochet.
Two X-Factors: Luis Robert suffered a major injury in May, but when he returned he didn’t miss a beat. He returned and slashed .350/.389/.622 and a 173 wRC+. Just-WOW. His 4.7% BB% might raise some concerns, but when he posts a slash line like the one I just listed, it won’t matter all that much. Robert has a 16.1% SwStr% with his 13.7 Launch Angle and 12.5 Barrel % might leave some problems for the Astros and any pitcher who decides to throw him a strike. On the pitching side of things, the White Sox have been extremely careful with Carlos Rodon all season long and especially since coming back from injury. They have allowed him to pitch more than six innings in a start only four times, one of them being his no-hitter and one of them being a 7 inning, 1 hit and 8 strikeout masterpiece vs the Astros in June. Since he came back on August 28th, he has a 4.36 xFIP with a 3.84 SIERA in 23 innings. It sounds like the White Sox only plan on having Rodon pitch just 1 game in the DS series so he will most likely pitch game 3. Before the multiple injuries and pushbacks, Rodon was having a CY candidacy year and if Rodon is capable of returning to that form for just five or six innings, then the White Sox have a pretty good shot at knocking off the Houston Astros.
Astros: Surrounded by the entire sign stealing scandal lies a still, very good baseball team in Houston. The ‘Stros lost George Springer in free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays, but was able to bring back their other free agent outfielder, Michael Brantley. The Astros were able to ride some of the career years of Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker and Lance McCullers Jr into their 4th AL West Division crown in 5 years. Houston as a team had a 116 wRC+ (best in MLB) proving they are a lineup that should put fear in opposing pitchers. Their bullpen seemed spotty, but James Click pulled off an interesting, divisional trade by trading Abraham Toro to the Seattle Mariners for Kendall Graveman. The bullpen improved significantly with a trio of Ryan Pressly, Brooks Raley and now Kendall Graveman. They also traded away outfielder, Myles Straw while they acquired reliever, Phil Matton. That deal hasn’t been the best of payoffs so far, although it did open the job for rookie outfielders, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, who have both played well this year.
Two X-Factors: Yordan Alvarez missed all but two games in the 2020 season and it would be an understatement to say that he was missed. The Astros had a team batting 101 wRC+ which is just barely above average, now they are a team batting 116 wRC+ which puts them at the top of the MLB. This year Alvarez finished with a 138 wRC+, and a .253 ISO making him a noticeable middle of the lineup bat proving that he can be one of the biggest difference makers. The Astros may very well go with a 3 man rotation for the ALDS. Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia are the only locks to start in this series and it may be Valdez who goes game 1 due to his durability. Valdez had a 1.9 fWAR, 3.58 xFIP to go with his amazing -5.5 Launch Angle. Valdez has the chance to pitch the first two out of four games and can put a nail in the White Sox coffin by pitching well in both those games.
Prediction: The Chicago White Sox have one of the best rotations. The Houston Astros have one of the best lineups. This is what October is all about. I’m taking the Houston Astros in four games over the Chicago White Sox.
ALCS (Astros vs Rays):
Prediction: The Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros will meet for the third consecutive time in the playoffs. In 2019, the Astros won the ALDS in 5 games after the Rays came back from 0-2. In 2020, the Tampa Bay Rays knocked off the Houston Astros to advance to the World Series after the Astros came back from 0-3. I don’t anticipate a comeback. However, I do anticipate the Houston Astros knocking off the 100 win Rays and advancing to the World Series in 5 games. For the hell of it, I will say Carlos Correa leaves Minute Maid Stadium with the ALCS MVP trophy in hand.
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