Trade Deadline Predictions Part One

 Note: Since I'm not that great at gauging the trade value of certain players, I'm not going to predict the return package in the trades. I'm also going to break this down into several posts. This one is going to be specifically Cubs players. 

Javier Baez: We will start off with, so far, the most notable sellers, the Chicago Cubs. Jed Hoyer's first year as President of Baseball Operations has been a difficult one. They have lost 14 out of their last 16 including an 11 game losing streak. They have many pieces to trade and we are going to start off with Javier Baez. Baez is slashing .238/.284/.493, has a wRC+ of 107 and a fWar of 1.9. In my opinion, I believe trading Baez is going to be the toughest pill to swallow. He is going to put fans in the stands (12th in jersey sales) with magnificent defense (1 OAA) and his electric bat and speed (28.3 ft/sec). One team that stands out to me as the clear front-runner for Baez if he gets traded is the Oakland Athletics. The A's rank 27th in fWar at the position. The Athletics acquired Elvis Andrus from the Texas Rangers in the off-season and they have gotten no production from him at all. On the season, he has 2 home runs, an OPS of .599, a wRC+ of 68. That is just the offensive side of things. He ranks 19th out of all shortstops in OAA and 22nd in DRS with -6. 

Prediction: Baez traded to the Athletics. 

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo is having an "average" year in Chicago, .771 OPS and a wRC+ of 111. The main thing that has regressed is his power. From 2014 through 2019, he had an ISO above .200 in five out of the six years. Ever since then, he has posted an ISO of .192 and .182 in 2020 and 2021 respectively. That is still slightly above average, (.176 is the average ISO for 1B this year). A potential fit for the lefty-swinging first baseman is the Boston Red Sox. They rank deadlast in fWar (-1.3), and only a 63 wRC+. I think it's safe to say that the Chicago Cubs won't have Rizzo on the roster next year and there is a good chance that they just traded for his potential replacement in Bryce Ball, who they acquired in the Joc Pederson deal. It comes down to, do the Cubs hold on to Rizzo and offer him the tender qualifying offer and hope he declines it so they get a compensation pick for him, or do they just trade him for anything? Red Sox top prospect, Triston Casas should be ready for the MLB next year, so an Anthony Rizzo deal would just be for the rest of this year and in hopes for a deep playoff run. Also, this wouldn't hinder the Red Sox from making a move and getting an arm. 

Prediction: Cubs just hold on to Rizzo for the rest of the season

Craig Kimbrel: Kimbrel is arguably having his best year as he sports his 15.35 K/9, 1.11 FIP, 1.93 xFIP, 1.75 SIERA and a 1.8 fWAR. He is one of if not the best available reliever on the market right now. The first team that comes to mind when I mention bullpen help is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have already blown 22 saves on the year. They have 2 more blown saves than Kimbrel does having saves with 20. Unfortunately, they rank 28th out of 30 MLB farm systems according to Fangraphs. If they make a deal for Kimbrel, they might have to drain their farm system. If there was ever a year to do it, this is the year. The Phillies are within striking distance for the NL East division crown sitting only three games back, and this would give them their closer for the next year as well because Kimbrel is under contract through 2022. The top three NL West teams, Giants, Dodgers and Padres wouldn't mind getting an additional arm for a potential deep October run. The Giants specifically, as their bullpen collects a 8.41 K/9 which ranks 28th in the MLB. Kimbrel definitely adds some firepower to the back-end of their bullpen. You can't rule out a reunion between Kimbrel and Boston, but I doubt the Red Sox will make a move for him because of the emergence of Matt Barnes. The final two teams that could use Kimbrel are the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. I believe that the Blue Jays will be more inclined to trade for a strater rather than a reliever even though their bullpen has been an issue. The Athletics, like the Giants, are in the bottom third in the league in K/9. In fact, they are dead last with 7.62 K/9. That is a major issue with how important strikeouts are in the playoffs. 

Prediction: Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies are desperate and land Kimbrel, but don't sleep on the Giants.  

Kris Bryant: Kris Bryant arrived in 2015 and quickly became the face of the Cubs, winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, the Most Valuable Player award in 2016 and helped break the dreadful 108 year curse in his MVP 2016 year. Out of all hitters with at least 3000 plate appearances since entering the league in 2015, he ranks 4th in baseball with 30.7 fWAR and 13th in baseball in terms of his 136 wRC+. Kris Bryant is having a pretty good year in his "walk-year". His power is back with his .230 ISO, .366 wOBA, and 132 wRC+. In the month of June, Bryant really struggled as he had a .446 OPS, 26 wRC+ and a 85.9 exit velocity. He was dealing with some lingering injuries so he may be back, but this next week or so is going to be huge whether the Cubs get a haul for Bryant or not. Numbers say he should be fine, so I expect them to get a pretty good deal for him. The New York Mets recently activated J.D Davis off of the IL, but is he going to help the lineup that much? Davis has been a solid hitter the past couple of years with a 150 wRC+ in 730 plate appearances through three seasons. The Mets may want to add a starter before they add an impact bat. The best fit for Kris Bryant is the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have been hit with the injury bug as their two outfield cornerstones, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, went down with injuries and their starting second baseman, Nick Madrigal, went down with season ending injury early in the season. Adding Bryant would be a luxury to the White Sox to have him play in the outfield and third base if they move Yoan Moncada over to second base. It would be a tough pill to swallow if the Cubs trade Bryant to the "Southside" and see him excell in the playoffs. The Cubs and White Sox made a huge deal in 2017 with the White Sox as the "sellers", trading away Jose Quintana for Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease.  The New York Yankees desperately need a boost in the outfield, specifically left field as they rank 29th in fWAR. For the Yankees to make the playoffs, they can't roll out Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar or Tim Locastro and expect to be a serious threat in the playoffs. They rank 19th in ISO with .158 and Bryant would add a fresh body to the locker room that desperately needs one. 

Prediction: White Sox add Bryant to their lineup 

  

MLB Teams Current vs Expected Stats

    I calculated all 30 MLB teams current slugging (SLG)% and weighted on-base average (wOBA)%'s, as well as their expected stats to see if teams were underperforming or over performing their expected stats. Since I will be including the graphs that I created, I won't ramble on for every team and let the images speak for themselves. 

Note: I would like to apologize for the blurry images and the spreadsheet that is in two images rather than one at the bottom of the page. This is my first time including spreadsheets and graphs and just getting accustomed to how this will work. I will clean it up for next time.  

As you can see, the St. Louis Cardinals have the highest negative differential between their SLG% and xSLG% at -.045. The next three teams that trail the Cardinals the closest are the New York Yankees (-.041), the Washington Nationals (-.031) and the Minnesota Twins (-.031). These four teams teams are the biggest underperformers for their expected stats, so expect these clubs to start slugging more in the upcoming months. One team that is outperforming their xSLG% is the Chicago White Sox (.011). With Yasmani Grandal being out for about a month and a half, the regression monster might hit the AL Central division leaders and quite hard. 

Here is the difference between teams' wOBA and xwOBA. Similar to the SLG% differentials, the Cardinals (-.045), Yankees (-.041), Nationals (-.031) and Twins (-.031) are among the highest negative differentials. The White Sox once again have the highest positive differential between SLG% and xSLG% at .006. 

I combined the SLG%-xSLG% differentials and wOBA%-xwOBA% and as you can see, some of the unluckiest teams in the MLB right now are the St.Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics just by being under their expected stats. Some teams that are over performing and might regress soon are the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays. 

  

One Pitcher the Yankees Should Monitor

In my previous article, I mentioned how the offense has struggled and that they were the reason why the Yankees have gotten off to such a slow start. That narrative has slowly changed. The offense as a team, has now cracked into the top-15 in terms of wRC+ (100), and the pitching has slowly regressed. From Opening Day to May 31st, the Yankees pitching staff had a 3.56 FIP, 3.63 SIERA, and a 31.7% hard contact rate. In the month of June alone, the pitching staff had a 4.86 FIP, 4.53 SIERA, and a 33.2% hard contact rate. Yes, the latter is during a shorter sample size, but you can't dispute the facts that the pitching has regressed with Corey Kluber going down, Domingo German declining, Jameson Taillon falling off a cliff, and Michael King not being anything more than a number 5 starter. Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery is looking like a nice, middle-of-the-rotation starter, he has a 3.55 FIP which ranks 31st in the MLB among starting pitchers. Montgomery also has a 2.89 FIP in 10 starts since May 5th, which is 8th in the MLB. So it's not all that bad, but they definitely need some help. 

 We addressed that the Yankees need help, now let us look at in my opinion, the most intriguing potential trade fit. The Philadelphia Phillies are only 4.5 games behind the first place New York Mets, but they have definitely underachieved. Their bullpen has a lot to blame for that with 21 blown saves. The Phillies have over $92 million tied to Bryce Harper, J.T Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius. I named those four players because they are either untouchable or untradeable due to the fact that they are making a boatload of money, (Didi would make $15 million next year, I doubt they are able to trade him without eating some money). Under Dave Dombrowski and with several all-star caliber players, you are expected to compete. The Phillies have a short amount of time to prove to Dombrowski that they are a playoff team. The Phillies may very well become sellers and get money off the books just so they can build around their core to compete next year. As crazy as this sounds, I wouldn't be shocked to hear Aaron Nola's name thrown around in trade talks this month. He's going to be making $15 million a year with a $16 million club option the following year. That of course is just a rumour, I wouldn't necessarily put the house on it. One pitcher who I think might become available to free up some space and net a pretty decent return is Zach Eflin. He will enter his final year of salary arbitration in his age 28 season. In my opinion, I believe the Yankees will look to add a starter whose contract will expire at the end of the year, but Eflin's situation is just interesting to look at. 

Eflin is having a pretty solid year to say the least. Coming into today, he has a 3.54 FIP, a 8.7 K/9, and a 28.6 CSW%. Those numbers itself would be a nice addition to the rotation. In fact, right before Eflin's worst start of the year on June 15th, he had a 3.11 FIP, 3.58 SIERA, and those numbers ranked him 15th and 19th in the MLB among starters respectively. He rebounded after his worst start of the year by pitching 6 innings and only allowing 1 run. It is difficult to judge how much trade value Eflin has, especially if the Phillies are still hovering around that .500 mark by the trade deadline and if he continues to pitch well. I would expect the return package to be similar to the Jameson Taillon deal that netted the Pirates, Miguel Yajure, Roansy Contreras, Maikol Escotto, and Canaan Smith. Would Cashman and the Yankees be anxious to pull the trigger on another trade that includes a mediocre starter for three, maybe even four prospects? If Eflin can fill in and be the Yankees number 2 or number 3 starter it definitely is worth it for how bad the Yankees starters have been this month. The offense has shown signs of life and now the pitching needs to back it up. Although a trade for Eflin would hurt the depth of the Yankees farm system, I doubt it would take two top 10 prospects in your farm system to get a deal like this done. It also wouldn't handicap the Yankees prospect-wise to make an additional trade for an offensive star, such as Joey Gallo.