National League Playoff Preview and Predictions

 Below is my MLB playoffs preview with my predictions. 

NL Wild Card (Cardinals vs Dodgers): 

Cardinals: The St. Louis Cardinals had a season low 1.3% chance to make the MLB playoffs, per Fangraphs. Soon followed was a 17 game win streak that helped the Cardinals clinch the second wild card spot over teams such as the Reds and Padres. They made miniscule deals at the deadline for Jon Lester and JA Happ at the deadline, which they haven’t added much to the table. On the bright side, the Cardinals have had some breakout seasons from players such as Tyler O’Neill, who accumulated a 6.3 bWAR and a 144 wRC+ to show with it, Dylan Carlson in his second season in the majors with a 113 wRC+ and Harrison Bader who totaled up a 3.9 bWAR in only 103 games. It’s safe to say that the emerging Cardinals outfield was one of if not the biggest story to the Cardinals success. Another key component to the Cardinals success was veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright throwing 200 plus innings in his age 40 season with a 3.87 xFIP and 76 ERA-. He just recently signed a one year extension to remain with the Cardinals in what may be his final year next year with his batterymate, Yadier Molina. 

Two X-Factors: Cardinals closer, Alex Reyes, has been a little worrisome at times when he is on the mound trying to lock down the final three outs. Reyes has a horrible, 16.4% walk rate which puts him at one of the highest walk rates in the MLB. That is why the Cardinals may need to rely on Giovanny Gallegos in the postseason to handle the high leverage situations. The Cardinals acquired Gallegos from the Yankees in a trade in 2018 for Luke Voit and it has been a win-win. Voit had nowhere to play with Paul Goldschmidt handling the 1st base duties and Gallegos has been one of the best relievers in baseball with his 2.75 FIP and 3.01 SIERA. On the offensive side of things, Edmundo Sosa might play a huge role for the Cardinals this postseason. The Cardinals were rumored to be involved in the shortstop market at the trade deadline and they might be in this year's offseason. But, Edmundo Sosa can put those rumors to rest with an excellent playoffs. Sosa is in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average highlighting his outstanding defense to go with his 104 wRC+. Sosa also has been productive against right handed pitchers with a 109 wRC+  with Max Scherzer and the possible right handed pitchers that loom from the Giants rotation. 

Dodgers: The Los Angeles Dodgers came into the year defending their World Series championship with a loaded rotation by signing former NL CY winner, Trevor Bauer. Bauer hasn’t pitched in July due to an ongoing investigation surrounding assault allegations and it was announced yesterday that Clayton Kershaw will miss the entire postseason. Those are two huge blows to the Dodgers pitching staff in which they envisioned a super rotation. Instead, they acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in one of the biggest trades in sports of all time. The team won 106 games and headed to the playoffs. Unfortunately, the San Francisco Giants won 107 games and won the division. Walker Buehler has taken the next step with an impressive 2021 with a 3.08 xERA and a 5.5 fWAR. Their entire pitching staff leads the MLB in K/9. 

Two X-Factors: On the final day of the regular season, the Dodgers lost MVP candidate, Max Muncy, to a serious injury that may make him miss the rest of the playoffs. Now, it turns to Mookie Betts. Since the trade, Betts has continued to be one of the best players in the MLB, but he missed 40 games this year and is now counted on more since Muncy may no longer be in the lineup. For the pitching staff, I might have to go with Max Scherzer. I know that it might be boring to go with their two best players as their two biggest x-factors, but I truly believe that the Dodgers will go as far as their new ace takes them. Scherzer turned into another beast when he was traded and with Kershaw out, he might have to take on a bigger role. This does not mean that the Dodgers rotation is bad other than “Mad Max”, but a big postseason from the pitcher might lead them to going back to the promised land. 

Prediction: The Cardinals put up a good fight, but ultimately the Dodgers advance.

NLDS (Dodgers vs Giants)

Giants: The San Francisco Giants caught everybody by surprise this year. Farhan Zaidi and Gabe Kapler have done a tremendous job in the Bay Area and perhaps last year’s near playoff appearance was no fluke. They received great contributions from pitchers such as Kevin Gausman and Logan Webb, and some great renaissance years from Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey. They won 107 games on the year just narrowly edging their rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers. At the trade deadline they pulled a last minute blockbuster for Kris Bryant who has been adequate. Since the deal, he has a 113 wRC+ and has played third base, left field, center field and right field. In addition to the players I have named, they have had other teams’ castaways and turned them into excellent players. The Giants traded for Thairo Estrada and he posted a 119 wRC+. They also signed Wilmer Flores who is well known with the Mets, but had a stop in Arizona with the Diamondbacks, and he now has a 1.6 bWAR in 139 games. Brandon Belt got injured down the home stretch and now they have a hole at first base so it will be interesting to see who the Giants rely on in the playoffs. 

Two X-Factors: I mentioned how the San Francisco Giants have turned castaways into legitimate MLB starters. One guy who fits into that category is LaMonte Wade Jr. He had a .244 ISO in the minors this year and brought his power with him to the majors with a .229 ISO. If the game is close and late, Wade Jr. is one of the guys the Giants want at the plate. In a limited 33 plate appearances, he has a whopping 313 wRC+ with a .367 ISO. If he doesn’t start any games, I can guarantee you he is the first guy off the bench in close games. The Giants have a bunch of quality relievers in the bullpen, so it is just a pick your poison on who you believe will come up huge in this year's playoffs. For the sake of it, I’ll just pick Jose Alvarez. He has had a nice year with a 58 ERA- and has a 50.5 GB%. Him limiting the ball to just go on the ground is crucial in the playoffs. 

Prediction: Initially I was going to go with the Dodgers, but I believe there is something special in San Francisco. It will be a great series. Giants in 5. 

NLDS (Braves vs Brewers): 

Braves: On July 10th, the Braves lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season due to an ACL tear. The Braves were 4.5 games back of the cruising Mets and it looked like the Braves were going to miss the playoffs. Then, the Braves went on a run due to huge trade deadline additions of Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario. Since those trades, they have had a wRC+ of 101, 101 and 133 respectively. Plus, Duvall got off to a cold start and has cooled off just before the playoffs, but from August 4th through September 23rd, he had a 133 wRC+ and a .340 ISO. Freddie Freeman had his usual year and the rest of the infield of Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Auston Riley took the next step offensively with all of them having their best years. 

Two X-Factors: Joc Pederson played for the Chicago Cubs earlier in the year and has seen the Brewers pitching staff. Even in his career, Pederson has 142 plate appearances vs the Brewers and has given the Brew Crew some fits with his 152 wRC+. Even though 142 plate appearances is a short sample size, I believe it is impossible to ignore the damage he has done against the Brewers and if he continues his hot streak against them, that is a bat that can change the series. We all know about the Brewers pitching staff, so it is up to Charlie Morton to match the outings that Burnes will put up. Morton’s curveball is no doubt his best pitch and he throws it 36.6% of the time and the Brewers did not succeed against the curveball. They ranked 25th in wOBA against the curveball. If Morton mows down the Brewers and gives the offense a chance against Burnes. 

Brewers: The Brewers won the NL Central comfortably thanks to one of the best rotations in the MLB. Corbin Burnes, the favorite for the NL CY had a 30.4% K-BB% and 7.5 fWAR, Brandon Woodruff had a 3.05 xFIP and 4.7 fWAR, and Freddie Peralta had a 2.72 xERA and 4 fWAR. The three headed monster of a rotation was a problem in the regular season and will continue to be a problem in the playoffs. Milwaukee acquired Willy Adames from the Tampa Bay Rays and he turned into an MVP candidate for a while. Since the trade his slash was .285/.366/.521 and a 135 wRC+. After the Brewers won the division, Devin Williams broke his hand celebrating which is a huge blow to their amazing pitching staff, but I wouldn’t be surprised if another pitcher fills in his role and excels. 

Two X-Factors: A popular choice here is rookie pitcher Aaron Ashby. After a disastrous debut where he couldn’t even get out of the first inning against the Cubs he was sent back down to the minors. He came back on August 30th and just dealt. He had a 2.76 xFIP and a 31.7% K%. The Brewers like to have rookie relievers out of the bullpen like they did in their 2018 run to the NLCS, and Ashby is going to be that guy. On the offensive side of things, Tyrone Taylor is going to be the guy who gets called on a lot this postseason. With Max Fried scheduled to pitch game 2, I wouldn’t put it past Craig Counsil putting Taylor’s name on the lineup card with his 122 wRC+ vs lefties. 

Prediction: Brewers in 3. 

 NLCS (Brewers vs Giants):

Prediction: Brewers in 6 with Freddie Peralta as the NLCS MVP.   

American League Playoff Preview and Predictions

 Below is my MLB playoffs preview with my predictions. 

AL Wild Card (Yankees vs Red Sox): 

Yankees: It took the Yankees 162 games for them to clinch a spot in the 2021 MLB playoffs and it was an absolute roller coaster of a ride. With the trade deadline additions of Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, Clay Holmes, Joely Rodriguez and Andrew Heaney, the Yankees went on a scorching hot streak. The Yankees went 23-4 following the Trade Deadline. Then, they went 3-12 right after their very productive streak. The Yankees starting rotation was excellent all year with their 3.98 SIERA and 91 ERA-. The Yankees main two sluggers, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, answered the bell this year with a 148 wRC+ and 137 wRC+ respectively. 

Two X-Factors: One hitter who can decide how far the Yankees can go is Gleyber Torres. With the late, unfortunate injury to DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres was moved up in the lineup all the way to the leadoff spot. Torres' defensive struggles at short made news all year long (-11 Defensive Runs Saved), and his bat was below average. After another terrible performance at shortstop, Aaron Boone made the decision to move Torres to second base on September 13th. Since then, in his 19 games at second base he has posted a .300/.372/.443 slash line with a 124 wRC+. He seems comfortable at second, and his launch angle increased to 14.8 with a 30.8% HardHit% turning him to a potential threat at the plate again. It will be critical for Torres to get on base for Rizzo, Judge and Stanton and continue to lift and drive the ball in big situations. One pitcher who is being overlooked is Luis Severino. Severino hadn’t pitched since game 3 of the 2019 ALCS due to multiple injuries and setbacks, but he is finally back. He isn’t back in the rotation, but he is coming out of the bullpen with the flexibility to throw multiple innings. Since his return, Severino has a 31.8% K-BB% and a 2.97 xFIP. Granted, he has only thrown 6 innings, but it would be foolish to believe that one of the game's best pitchers wouldn’t be able to pitch some lockdown innings. 

Red Sox: Before the season, Fangraphs predicted that the Red Sox would miss the playoffs. Alex Cora returned to manage the club after his suspension for his involvement with the Astros sign stealing scandal and Chaim Bloom was in his second year as the Red Sox Executive. Bloom immediately hit the jackpot with several additions that nobody even thought of. After being non-tendered by the Tampa Bay Rays, Renfroe signed with the Red Sox and delivered. Renfroe had a 114 wRC+, .816 OPS while being one of the best defensive outfielders as well. Next, the Red Sox drafted Garret Whitlock from the Yankees in the rule 5 draft. In 46 games, Whitlock has a 2.84 FIP, 49.7 GB%, and a 3.06 SIERA. Combine those two finds with the already dangerous lineup and sneaky good rotation and you will find success. Bloom pulled the trigger on deals for Kyle Schwarber, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles and later acquired Travis Shaw and Jose Iglesias who all found ways to contribute to the Red Sox 92-70 season. 

Two X-Factors: During the trade deadline week, the Red Sox were heavily rumored to acquire Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, for the BoSOX, their rival, New York Yankees, managed to pull off a deal for the lefty-hitting first baseman. Luckily for the Sox, it turns out the best deal was the deal that was never made. Since August 1st, Bobby Dalbec posted a slash line of .288/.369/.683 and an extremely productive 174 wRC+. In fact, that 174 wRC+ was the eight highest in all of baseball since that date trailing the names of Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Paul Goldschmidt. Dalbec is more inclined to start against left handed starters, but if he continues to mash in the playoffs, that is a bat that can put the Red Sox in another stratosphere. Red Sox 25 year old, Tanner Houck has both started and came out of the bullpen for Boston this season (18 games, 13 starts), and has been dominant.For his 2021 season, he had a 3.22 xERA and a 11.35 K/9 with his best pitch being the slider with his -4 Run Value. For the postseason, Boston will definitely have Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale as their starters and most likely Eduardo Rodriquez, but with a potential open spot in the rotation, Houck might fill in that role. Also, they have had serious bullpen struggles in the second half headlined by former closer, Matt Barnes (5.92 FIP, 131 ERA-), so there is a chance that Houck could close out some games as well. 

Prediction: The probable starters for the wild card game are Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. The season series was won by the Red Sox (10-9) which is why it is being played at Fenway rather than Yankee Stadium. This is an extremely tough call, but I will give the edge to the Yankees due to the Yankees having the better starter taking the mound. 

ALDS (Yankees vs Rays): 

Rays: The Tampa Bays followed up their 2020 World Series appearance with a fantastic 2021 season that headlined the debut of Wander Franco. The Rays lost Blake Snell, Charlie Morton in the offseason, then lost Yonny Chirinos and Tyler Glasnow who was probably the AL CY favorite at the time. The Rays entire pitching staff picked up the slack though with a 3.97 xFIP which ranked them 5th in all of baseball. Some of the pitchers who helped along the way were fellow rookie Shane McClanahan, Collin McHugh and Andrew Kittredge. They ended up trading shortstop, Willy Adames, to the Milwaukee Brewers for J.P Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen thus opening the door for top prospect in all of baseball, Wander Franco. It took some time for Franco to solidify himself, however he burst on to the scene when he exploded for a 43 game on base streak. During his 43 game on base streak, Franco had a slash line of .329/.398/.545 with a 163 wRC+. What might be the most impressive thing about Franco was his 33.8% O-Swing% during his streak showing his discipline as a rookie. In the 70 games he played he had 3.5 bWAR which already puts him in the conversation as a top-25 player in baseball at the age of 20.

Two X-Factors: Ji-Man Choi made his season debut on May 16th and continued to show his amazing discipline at the plate with his 14.8% BB%. Choi has actually struggled since August 1st with his 84 wRC+, however the Rays continue to show their trust in Choi by putting him in the lineup and they have put him in all 9 positions in the batting order. If the Yankees were to advance and play the Rays in the ALDS, Choi would have phenomenal numbers against Gerrit Cole. Choi is 8 for 14 with 3 walks and 3 home runs so that should definitely be monitored if the two teams meet up. One pitcher who is going to be used in every situation possible is Colin McHugh. McHugh signed with the Rays during the offseason after not being able to pitch for the Red Sox in 2020. McHugh has been a swiss army knife for Tampa appearing in 37 games while starting in 7 of them. McHugh had a 38 ERA- and a 2.12 FIP and has been excellent in high leverage situations with a .240 batting average and a .621 OPS against. I would expect McHugh to be counted on in many different situations in this series. 

Prediction: This is the hardest series for me to predict because the Yankees have the talent on paper, but not the possibility of losing Gerrit Cole for a start because he had to start the wild card game might become costly. A stacked bullpen and a lineup that features Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton might keep it close, but I’m going with the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees in 5 games. 

ALDS (White Sox vs Astros): 

White Sox: The Chicago White Sox rebuild has been completed. Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are in the majors and are producing at a high level. Meanwhile, the rotation has been solid all year long with Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease leading the way. Many predicted (I included) that the Minnesota Twins would be the AL Central division champs, but the Twins struggled the entire year, and the slow start hindered their chances at giving the White Sox some sort of shot at the division. Even though the White Sox had a comfortable divisional lead, Rick Hahn made a huge deal in acquiring both Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs just shortly after acquiring Ryan Tepera at an earlier date. He also acquired Cesar Hernandez from the Cleveland Indians. The bullpen for Chicago has been outstanding and got better as the season went on. The bullpen features Liam Hendricks, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Bummer, Michael Kopech and Garret Crochet. 

Two X-Factors: Luis Robert suffered a major injury in May, but when he returned he didn’t miss a beat. He returned and slashed .350/.389/.622 and a 173 wRC+. Just-WOW. His 4.7%  BB% might raise some concerns, but when he posts a slash line like the one I just listed, it won’t matter all that much. Robert has a 16.1% SwStr% with his 13.7 Launch Angle and 12.5 Barrel % might leave some problems for the Astros and any pitcher who decides to throw him a strike. On the pitching side of things, the White Sox have been extremely careful with Carlos Rodon all season long and especially since coming back from injury. They have allowed him to pitch more than six innings in a start only four times, one of them being his no-hitter and one of them being a 7 inning, 1 hit and 8 strikeout masterpiece vs the Astros in June.  Since he came back on August 28th, he has a 4.36 xFIP with a 3.84 SIERA in 23 innings. It sounds like the White Sox only plan on having Rodon pitch just 1 game in the DS series so he will most likely pitch game 3. Before the multiple injuries and pushbacks, Rodon was having a CY candidacy year and if Rodon is capable of returning to that form for just five or six innings, then the White Sox have a pretty good shot at knocking off the Houston Astros. 

Astros: Surrounded by the entire sign stealing scandal lies a still, very good baseball team in Houston. The ‘Stros lost George Springer in free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays, but was able to bring back their other free agent outfielder, Michael Brantley. The Astros were able to ride some of the career years of Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker and Lance McCullers Jr into their 4th AL West Division crown in 5 years. Houston as a team had a 116 wRC+ (best in MLB) proving they are a lineup that should put fear in opposing pitchers. Their bullpen seemed spotty, but James Click pulled off an interesting, divisional trade by trading Abraham Toro to the Seattle Mariners for Kendall Graveman. The bullpen improved significantly with a trio of Ryan Pressly, Brooks Raley and now Kendall Graveman. They also traded away outfielder, Myles Straw while they acquired reliever, Phil Matton. That deal hasn’t been the best of payoffs so far, although it did open the job for rookie outfielders, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, who have both played well this year. 

Two X-Factors: Yordan Alvarez missed all but two games in the 2020 season and it would be an understatement to say that he was missed. The Astros had a team batting 101 wRC+ which is just barely above average, now they are a team batting 116 wRC+ which puts them at the top of the MLB. This year Alvarez finished with a 138 wRC+, and a .253 ISO making him a noticeable middle of the lineup bat proving that he can be one of the biggest difference makers. The Astros may very well go with a 3 man rotation for the ALDS. Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia are the only locks to start in this series and it may be Valdez who goes game 1 due to his durability. Valdez had a 1.9 fWAR, 3.58 xFIP to go with his amazing -5.5 Launch Angle. Valdez has the chance to pitch the first two out of four games and can put a nail in the White Sox coffin by pitching well in both those games. 

Prediction: The Chicago White Sox have one of the best rotations. The Houston Astros have one of the best lineups. This is what October is all about. I’m taking the Houston Astros in four games over the Chicago White Sox. 

ALCS (Astros vs Rays): 

Prediction: The Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros will meet for the third consecutive time in the playoffs. In 2019, the Astros won the ALDS in 5 games after the Rays came back from 0-2. In 2020, the Tampa Bay Rays knocked off the Houston Astros to advance to the World Series after the Astros came back from 0-3. I don’t anticipate a comeback. However, I do anticipate the Houston Astros knocking off the 100 win Rays and advancing to the World Series in 5 games. For the hell of it, I will say Carlos Correa leaves Minute Maid Stadium with the ALCS MVP trophy in hand.

Trade Deadline Predictions Part One

 Note: Since I'm not that great at gauging the trade value of certain players, I'm not going to predict the return package in the trades. I'm also going to break this down into several posts. This one is going to be specifically Cubs players. 

Javier Baez: We will start off with, so far, the most notable sellers, the Chicago Cubs. Jed Hoyer's first year as President of Baseball Operations has been a difficult one. They have lost 14 out of their last 16 including an 11 game losing streak. They have many pieces to trade and we are going to start off with Javier Baez. Baez is slashing .238/.284/.493, has a wRC+ of 107 and a fWar of 1.9. In my opinion, I believe trading Baez is going to be the toughest pill to swallow. He is going to put fans in the stands (12th in jersey sales) with magnificent defense (1 OAA) and his electric bat and speed (28.3 ft/sec). One team that stands out to me as the clear front-runner for Baez if he gets traded is the Oakland Athletics. The A's rank 27th in fWar at the position. The Athletics acquired Elvis Andrus from the Texas Rangers in the off-season and they have gotten no production from him at all. On the season, he has 2 home runs, an OPS of .599, a wRC+ of 68. That is just the offensive side of things. He ranks 19th out of all shortstops in OAA and 22nd in DRS with -6. 

Prediction: Baez traded to the Athletics. 

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo is having an "average" year in Chicago, .771 OPS and a wRC+ of 111. The main thing that has regressed is his power. From 2014 through 2019, he had an ISO above .200 in five out of the six years. Ever since then, he has posted an ISO of .192 and .182 in 2020 and 2021 respectively. That is still slightly above average, (.176 is the average ISO for 1B this year). A potential fit for the lefty-swinging first baseman is the Boston Red Sox. They rank deadlast in fWar (-1.3), and only a 63 wRC+. I think it's safe to say that the Chicago Cubs won't have Rizzo on the roster next year and there is a good chance that they just traded for his potential replacement in Bryce Ball, who they acquired in the Joc Pederson deal. It comes down to, do the Cubs hold on to Rizzo and offer him the tender qualifying offer and hope he declines it so they get a compensation pick for him, or do they just trade him for anything? Red Sox top prospect, Triston Casas should be ready for the MLB next year, so an Anthony Rizzo deal would just be for the rest of this year and in hopes for a deep playoff run. Also, this wouldn't hinder the Red Sox from making a move and getting an arm. 

Prediction: Cubs just hold on to Rizzo for the rest of the season

Craig Kimbrel: Kimbrel is arguably having his best year as he sports his 15.35 K/9, 1.11 FIP, 1.93 xFIP, 1.75 SIERA and a 1.8 fWAR. He is one of if not the best available reliever on the market right now. The first team that comes to mind when I mention bullpen help is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have already blown 22 saves on the year. They have 2 more blown saves than Kimbrel does having saves with 20. Unfortunately, they rank 28th out of 30 MLB farm systems according to Fangraphs. If they make a deal for Kimbrel, they might have to drain their farm system. If there was ever a year to do it, this is the year. The Phillies are within striking distance for the NL East division crown sitting only three games back, and this would give them their closer for the next year as well because Kimbrel is under contract through 2022. The top three NL West teams, Giants, Dodgers and Padres wouldn't mind getting an additional arm for a potential deep October run. The Giants specifically, as their bullpen collects a 8.41 K/9 which ranks 28th in the MLB. Kimbrel definitely adds some firepower to the back-end of their bullpen. You can't rule out a reunion between Kimbrel and Boston, but I doubt the Red Sox will make a move for him because of the emergence of Matt Barnes. The final two teams that could use Kimbrel are the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. I believe that the Blue Jays will be more inclined to trade for a strater rather than a reliever even though their bullpen has been an issue. The Athletics, like the Giants, are in the bottom third in the league in K/9. In fact, they are dead last with 7.62 K/9. That is a major issue with how important strikeouts are in the playoffs. 

Prediction: Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies are desperate and land Kimbrel, but don't sleep on the Giants.  

Kris Bryant: Kris Bryant arrived in 2015 and quickly became the face of the Cubs, winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, the Most Valuable Player award in 2016 and helped break the dreadful 108 year curse in his MVP 2016 year. Out of all hitters with at least 3000 plate appearances since entering the league in 2015, he ranks 4th in baseball with 30.7 fWAR and 13th in baseball in terms of his 136 wRC+. Kris Bryant is having a pretty good year in his "walk-year". His power is back with his .230 ISO, .366 wOBA, and 132 wRC+. In the month of June, Bryant really struggled as he had a .446 OPS, 26 wRC+ and a 85.9 exit velocity. He was dealing with some lingering injuries so he may be back, but this next week or so is going to be huge whether the Cubs get a haul for Bryant or not. Numbers say he should be fine, so I expect them to get a pretty good deal for him. The New York Mets recently activated J.D Davis off of the IL, but is he going to help the lineup that much? Davis has been a solid hitter the past couple of years with a 150 wRC+ in 730 plate appearances through three seasons. The Mets may want to add a starter before they add an impact bat. The best fit for Kris Bryant is the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have been hit with the injury bug as their two outfield cornerstones, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, went down with injuries and their starting second baseman, Nick Madrigal, went down with season ending injury early in the season. Adding Bryant would be a luxury to the White Sox to have him play in the outfield and third base if they move Yoan Moncada over to second base. It would be a tough pill to swallow if the Cubs trade Bryant to the "Southside" and see him excell in the playoffs. The Cubs and White Sox made a huge deal in 2017 with the White Sox as the "sellers", trading away Jose Quintana for Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease.  The New York Yankees desperately need a boost in the outfield, specifically left field as they rank 29th in fWAR. For the Yankees to make the playoffs, they can't roll out Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar or Tim Locastro and expect to be a serious threat in the playoffs. They rank 19th in ISO with .158 and Bryant would add a fresh body to the locker room that desperately needs one. 

Prediction: White Sox add Bryant to their lineup 

  

MLB Teams Current vs Expected Stats

    I calculated all 30 MLB teams current slugging (SLG)% and weighted on-base average (wOBA)%'s, as well as their expected stats to see if teams were underperforming or over performing their expected stats. Since I will be including the graphs that I created, I won't ramble on for every team and let the images speak for themselves. 

Note: I would like to apologize for the blurry images and the spreadsheet that is in two images rather than one at the bottom of the page. This is my first time including spreadsheets and graphs and just getting accustomed to how this will work. I will clean it up for next time.  

As you can see, the St. Louis Cardinals have the highest negative differential between their SLG% and xSLG% at -.045. The next three teams that trail the Cardinals the closest are the New York Yankees (-.041), the Washington Nationals (-.031) and the Minnesota Twins (-.031). These four teams teams are the biggest underperformers for their expected stats, so expect these clubs to start slugging more in the upcoming months. One team that is outperforming their xSLG% is the Chicago White Sox (.011). With Yasmani Grandal being out for about a month and a half, the regression monster might hit the AL Central division leaders and quite hard. 

Here is the difference between teams' wOBA and xwOBA. Similar to the SLG% differentials, the Cardinals (-.045), Yankees (-.041), Nationals (-.031) and Twins (-.031) are among the highest negative differentials. The White Sox once again have the highest positive differential between SLG% and xSLG% at .006. 

I combined the SLG%-xSLG% differentials and wOBA%-xwOBA% and as you can see, some of the unluckiest teams in the MLB right now are the St.Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics just by being under their expected stats. Some teams that are over performing and might regress soon are the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays. 

  

One Pitcher the Yankees Should Monitor

In my previous article, I mentioned how the offense has struggled and that they were the reason why the Yankees have gotten off to such a slow start. That narrative has slowly changed. The offense as a team, has now cracked into the top-15 in terms of wRC+ (100), and the pitching has slowly regressed. From Opening Day to May 31st, the Yankees pitching staff had a 3.56 FIP, 3.63 SIERA, and a 31.7% hard contact rate. In the month of June alone, the pitching staff had a 4.86 FIP, 4.53 SIERA, and a 33.2% hard contact rate. Yes, the latter is during a shorter sample size, but you can't dispute the facts that the pitching has regressed with Corey Kluber going down, Domingo German declining, Jameson Taillon falling off a cliff, and Michael King not being anything more than a number 5 starter. Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery is looking like a nice, middle-of-the-rotation starter, he has a 3.55 FIP which ranks 31st in the MLB among starting pitchers. Montgomery also has a 2.89 FIP in 10 starts since May 5th, which is 8th in the MLB. So it's not all that bad, but they definitely need some help. 

 We addressed that the Yankees need help, now let us look at in my opinion, the most intriguing potential trade fit. The Philadelphia Phillies are only 4.5 games behind the first place New York Mets, but they have definitely underachieved. Their bullpen has a lot to blame for that with 21 blown saves. The Phillies have over $92 million tied to Bryce Harper, J.T Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius. I named those four players because they are either untouchable or untradeable due to the fact that they are making a boatload of money, (Didi would make $15 million next year, I doubt they are able to trade him without eating some money). Under Dave Dombrowski and with several all-star caliber players, you are expected to compete. The Phillies have a short amount of time to prove to Dombrowski that they are a playoff team. The Phillies may very well become sellers and get money off the books just so they can build around their core to compete next year. As crazy as this sounds, I wouldn't be shocked to hear Aaron Nola's name thrown around in trade talks this month. He's going to be making $15 million a year with a $16 million club option the following year. That of course is just a rumour, I wouldn't necessarily put the house on it. One pitcher who I think might become available to free up some space and net a pretty decent return is Zach Eflin. He will enter his final year of salary arbitration in his age 28 season. In my opinion, I believe the Yankees will look to add a starter whose contract will expire at the end of the year, but Eflin's situation is just interesting to look at. 

Eflin is having a pretty solid year to say the least. Coming into today, he has a 3.54 FIP, a 8.7 K/9, and a 28.6 CSW%. Those numbers itself would be a nice addition to the rotation. In fact, right before Eflin's worst start of the year on June 15th, he had a 3.11 FIP, 3.58 SIERA, and those numbers ranked him 15th and 19th in the MLB among starters respectively. He rebounded after his worst start of the year by pitching 6 innings and only allowing 1 run. It is difficult to judge how much trade value Eflin has, especially if the Phillies are still hovering around that .500 mark by the trade deadline and if he continues to pitch well. I would expect the return package to be similar to the Jameson Taillon deal that netted the Pirates, Miguel Yajure, Roansy Contreras, Maikol Escotto, and Canaan Smith. Would Cashman and the Yankees be anxious to pull the trigger on another trade that includes a mediocre starter for three, maybe even four prospects? If Eflin can fill in and be the Yankees number 2 or number 3 starter it definitely is worth it for how bad the Yankees starters have been this month. The offense has shown signs of life and now the pitching needs to back it up. Although a trade for Eflin would hurt the depth of the Yankees farm system, I doubt it would take two top 10 prospects in your farm system to get a deal like this done. It also wouldn't handicap the Yankees prospect-wise to make an additional trade for an offensive star, such as Joey Gallo.  

Potential Trade Piece for the Yankees that Nobody is Talking About

 

    As of today, the Yankees are 41-38. They sit 7.5 games back behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East, and 5 games behind the Athletics for the second wild card. Ever since the Yankees swept the Chicago White Sox on May 23rd, they have gone 13-19 and both the offense and pitching can be blamed for that stretch. During the 32 game stretch, they have scored 129 runs (4.03 runs/game), while the pitching has allowed 144 runs (4.5 runs/game). The offense has shown some life with the resurgence of Gary Sanchez and the return of Luke Voit, but still remains a problem with the left fielders, Andujar and Frazier, and Brett Gardner still managing to play three to four times a week. The Yankees are definitely not trading away pieces. They have made the playoffs in each of the past four years with basically the same core, now they have an even better bullpen and one of the game's starting pitchers. They just have to fix the offense and they can get going again. 

Like I said earlier, the left field position has given the Yankees troubles. This can be said for both offensively and defensively. Let us start off with who was supposed to be the starting left fielder throughout the entire season, Clint Frazier. Clint Frazier has posted a slash line of: .186/.313/.317, which accumulates to a .620 OPS, and has a 82 wRC+. If you think that's bad, his defense is even worse. He has a -5 OAA among left fielders (2nd to last in front of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.), lowest catch probability and outfield jump among all outfielders. Clint Frazier is not the answer to the Yankees left field questions. 

Now onto Miguel Andujar. He was once the Yankees future third baseman. One injury and the emergence of Gio Urshela has forced Andujar to change positions to fight for playing time. Let's see how Andujar has played. His slash line on the season is .264/.293/.407, which accumulates to .700 right on the dot. He also has a 92 wRC+. That isn't the type of production you want from your LF. Let's give Andujar credit, ever since 5/27, he has a slash line of: .290/.330/.495. That is an .825 OPS and he also has a 124 wRC+ on the side too. He has played better with more playing time, but his glove in LF, like Frazier, is hurting the team and destroying his production. Miguel Andujar is not the answer at the moment, not in such an important year. 

Yankees General Manager, Brian Cashman, has been relatively quiet for the past couple of trade deadlines. The past two seasons, the Yankees were hit hard by the injury bug, but were all expected to be back in time before the playoffs. This year? Only Aaron Hicks is missing in the lineup. The Yankees have been incredibly unlucky (largest team differentials in xSLG/SLG and xwOBA/wOBA), but there has to be a time where you can't count on luck and progression. Cashman will acquire two additions this trade deadline, a starter and an outfielder. Today, I'm here to talk about that certain outfielder that is able to help. 

Since this team is underperforming, Cashman might be worried about pulling that trigger and giving too much for a hitter when the team might not even make the playoffs. If Cashman doesn't feel comfortable mortgaging the farm for a Ketel Marte or a Joey Gallo, then look no further than 1,200 miles down south. You will see corner outfielder, Adam Duvall. 

Duvall has posted a slash line of: .216/.265/.461 which comes to a .726 OPS. He also has the league average, 100 wRC+. It's nothing pretty, he has never been a guy who walks, but he has always been a slugger. Which is sort of ironic, because that's what the Yankees lack even though they have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit...Duvall doesn't have the best offensive production numbers, but if you look back since 5/1 he has a 115 wRC+. In the month of June alone, he has a 121 wRC+ with a .529 slugging %. He would be a key, middle of the order type of bat that can balls into the gap and the seats. On top of that, Duvall is 32nd and 31st among all outfielders in outfield jump and catch probability, respectively. So, he's a slugger who can play above average defense. He has spent most of his time in right field when playing for the Marlins, but has actually played a little of left field and center field if they want to take that route. If the Yankees are comfortable, they can deal with an Andujar-Judge-Duvall outfield, or an Andujar-Duvall-Judge outfield if they prefer to save Judge's body. 

For the price: it won't cost the Yankees an arm and a leg. Duvall has a cheap contract that won't make the Yankees go over the luxury tax with this move. The Marlins are pretty thin on LHP so one name that may come up is Ken Waldichuk. He's a southpaw who was just recently called up to the Somerset Patriots (AA). He won't be ready to play in the majors this year or the next, but he could potentially make the rotation some time during 2023. He's ranked as the Yankees 45th best overall prospect, according to Fangraphs. The key piece of this deal will be Oswaldo Cabrera. Cabrera usually plays third base for the Patriots, but has the flexibility to play shortstop and second base. The Marlins may want to move on from Brian Anderson soon and Cabrera has just under 2,000 plate appearances in the minors. He can find himself on the roster as soon as the end of the year. He is ranked as the Yankees 16th best overall prospect. With those two prospects along with some cash/international free agency money/one more lesser known prospect, the Yankees and Marlins might have themselves a deal.